Where Will You Be
Where will you be is a collaborative endeavor where all manner of people are invited to make statements on where they will be and live in the next few hundred years. The project is based on the non-contradiction principle – if someone makes a statement later contributors to the project should make sincere attempts not to contradict earlier statements, and anyone making statements (on colonization of the solar system, and available technologies) should make relatively conservative estimates and statements about the future, as well as statements that allow later makers of statements to seamlessly mesh their statements with anyone contributing later. The goal is to arouse thought on the meaning of technologically advancing technologies, life extension and we can describe a future that’s both meaningful as well as plausible. This project is part collaborative fiction, as well as “crowdsourced futurism”.
This page will chart what’s ‘canon’, i.e. what’s true for the established timeline.
When making a contribution, please read over as much as you can of what has been posted previously, and try to quote as much people as you can that made earlier statements.
The collaborative storyline assumes humanity will soon become immortal, and will soon travel to the outer solar system in large numbers of people. The collaborative storyline assumes there will be no “hard takeoff” and emphasizes as much as possible what will prove to be hard science.
A problem which will no doubt emerge during the collaboration will be based on old trope left/right political divide that has so poisoned the debate in futurological circles. An example of such a topic is climate change, and the effects of heat trapping emissions on causing irreversible and probably catastrophic changes to the planetary biosphere. There are lots of futurist inclined people that swear that CO2 is a healthy gas (plants crave it!) and that there is no man-made climatic disruption of relevance. In case of irresolvable tries I’ll post a query on the group and we vote on what’s canon. Sadly this will cause people to leave the collaboration as they will conclude the vote has created a set of premises and axioms they regard as fictional. It is my goal to work around these ‘irresolvables’ as much as possible, with “creative storytelling”, i.e. many of the statements in respective stories may in fact be disinformation. For instance, you may make a statements where it is proven “smoking cigarettes” has been proven to be healthy in the year 2040, and if you make sure contrarian statements you are invited to make yourself as falsifiable as possible.
– as the project starts up limit yourself to the 21st century.
– If you have the slightest doubt about what will be possible debate and ask for questionnaire/audience feedback
Axioms of the future storyline are as follows
Extremely expensive biogerontological life extension has effects counted in years gained in average statistical life expectancy of several years over the median (non treatment) population by 2030. This increase rises to a decade beyond 2040 and to many decades by 2050. It can be assumed that all very rich people who so desire can live indefinitely (barring accidents or misfortune) by 2075. For all people living in the developed world it can be assumed there will be 1-2 decades of lag, i.e. for anyone of low income living in a developed, modern country it can be assumed they will live indefinitely (if they so desire) by 2100. We’ll assume the number of people making use of life extension options will initially be a great deal less than 50%, so gross human mortality from age related ailments will remain high for the better part of the 21st century.
Solar system colonization
We’ll distinguish several states for settlement of the solar system. The first state will be comprehensive automated exploration. Then will follow semi-automated resource development. The third stage will encompass small crew missions of a semi-permanent nature. The fourth stage will entail expensive (and cumbersome) political or corporate block missions that may evolve in to early settlements. The fifth stage will entail pioneering of logo-wearing corporate and state settlers, and early industry. The sixth stage will entail wildcatter or privateer settlers, and the commencement of large scale industrialization and settlement. We’ll decide on later stages afterwards. We’ll assume that stage six comprises massive automation as well as human presence numbering in the thousands.
I:2030 II:2040 III:2045 IV:2050 V:2055 VI:2065
I: 2050 II:2065
I: 2020 II:2035 III:2055 IV:2065 V:2080 VI:2100
Main Asteroid Belt
I: 2030 II:2045 III:2065 IV:2075 V:2090 VI:2120
Artificial Intelligence, Singularity, FOOM, etc.
We’ll assume a world with maximum meaning. That means – the world must mean as much as possible for everyone taking part. That means – no hard singularity for now, and whatever exponential technologies occur, they will occur in a manner that allows for comprehensive and understandable storytelling.
Ask me for additional axioms by mailing email@example.com