Things will certainly turn out differently, but …

19 Feb , 2018 Uncategorized

Infect Teh Interwebs

This is a guesstimate for being an active observer of life extension of what, I believe, we can anticipate. The following list is intended to make you think about the various levels of aging reversal treatments. These are all sign points for some future date where we can, at that moment (or in retrospect later on) decide “see, here is where we made significant progress”. My question to you, my reader, where do you guesstimate these dates?
Yes I ignore the possibility or relatively plausibility of a technological “singularity” occurring – This list is my estimate in case a hard take-off of A.I. does, for some reason, not occur.

Update as always reddit gives me some fierce dismissal, and I am going to the source in terms of updating the below guesstimates. If I rephrase a guesstimate, or update a guesstimate I will post in superscript updated and mention the debate, consensus and feedback down below. Please keep insults in any comments to a minimum, thank you very much, I am a sensitive girl.

2020

First developed nation corporation-funded >b>trials (beyond research) to actively mitigate the effects of aging with existing substances such as Metformin, Rapamycin, etc.

2021

First developed nation implements a basic income.

2022

The United States implement single payer health care.

2023

First human babies born of which can be determined with certainty significant portions of their genome have been ‘improved’ or ‘repaired’.

2024

First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that the effects of aging can be significantly mitigated in vertebrate animals.

2025

Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 90 years.

2025

First widely publicized private sector “hacking” attempted to significantly (years) extend life by means of genetic stem cell treatments that turn having tangible measurable physiological beneficial results, but do not pass scientific peer review in terms of proving this is aging mitigation; Very sharp decline in available jobs world wide. Most countries have double unemployment levels relative to 2015 – period of mass global instability and protests.

2026

Temporary period of decreasing lifespan that lasted a decade is reversed in the United States – average lifespan start slowly going up again.

2027

Nearly all cancers can now be cured.

2028

First developed nation corporation-funded trials (beyond research) to actively significantly constrain the effects of aging with existing substances in humans.

2029

First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that the effects of aging can be significantly mitigated in higher order mammals; first country attempts (albeit briefly) to make treatment or reversal of aging illegal.

2030

First life insurance pension found reports going bankrupt from the alleged effects of fairly rapidly extended lifespan in its clients – largely due to unanticipated fast onset of increased on average lifespan in clients.

2031

First effective treatment of diseases using animate nanotechnology (nanoids).

2032

First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that the effects of aging can be mitigated in monkey studies.

2033

First human born in zero G environment in space.

2034

First developed nation corporation-funded trials (beyond research) to halt mitigate the effects of aging with existing substances such as Metformin, Rapamycin, etc.

2035

2036

First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that the effects of aging can be mitigated in humans.

2037

Most the developed world has implemented some form of basic income.

2038

Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 100 years.

2039

2040

First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that aging can be halted in humans, assuming extremely expensive, invasive and uncomfortable treatments.

2041

Most forms of mental diseases can be cured.

2042

First developed nation corporation-funded trials (beyond research) to actively reverse the effects of aging with existing substances. First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that aging can be reversed in vertebrate animals; First country in the world makes procreation without genetically repairing imperfections illegal.

2044

2045

Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 110 years, largely due to advances in regular treatments and better and more affordable care for the elderly.

2046

2047

2048

First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that aging can be reversed in higher order mammals.

2049

2050

Most commonly occurring diseases can now be cured, if treatment starts promptly.

2051

2052

First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that aging can be reversed in humans.

2053

2054

First human infants born that have been genetically altered as to significantly increase their average lifespan.

2055

2056

Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 120 years, largely due to advances in regular treatments and better and more affordable care for the elderly but increasingly because of mitigation or reversal of aging.

2057

2058

Most forms of mental diseases are now cured in most countries in the world.

2059

2060

First country makes treatment of aging obligatory by law for its citizens.

2061

2062

2063

2064

2065

Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 130 years.

2066

2067

2068

2069

2070

Most countries in the world have made births of humans without having first fixed any genetic errors illegal or some form of child abuse.

2071

2072

2073

2074

Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 140 years.

2075

Almost every country in the world has some kind of single payer health care.

2076

2077

2078

2079

2080

The poorest country in the world now has a better average standard of living than the richest country in 2015.

2081

2082

Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 150 years.

2083

2084

2085

2086

2087

First country in the world makes having children without implementing significant genetic upgrades (i.e. transhumanism) to their genome illegal. Most countries in the world have made births of humans without having first fixed any genetic errors illegal or some form of child abuse.

2088

2089

Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 150 years.

2090

2091

2092

2093

2094

2095

Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 160 years.

2096

2097

2098

2100

The vast majority of human beings living in developed economies can (if so desired) obtain indefinite youth and broad range health from simple, comfortable and affordable biogerontological treatments; Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 170 years; Audrey de Grey celebrates her 147th birth date.

If you disagree with me on some dates or other guesstimates (or want me to add new categories of guesstimates), please email me and I may add some of these comments below here.

Relevant Comments
User runnyhungo via /r/IsaacArthur comments
its already wrong, rejuvenation treatments is already in human trials for Parkinson’s disease, and uses vastly more advanced methods than Metformin (which was discovered in 1922). The cause of Parkinson’s disease is the aging process of gradually losing cells that die for a million reasons we can’t stop, but stem-cells can replace the lost cells so that’s rejuvenation. It should be noted that before 2000-ish they actually tried to prevent the cells from dying in the first place, from a million different causes, none of which were properly understood. Hence today people think rejuvenation is properly impossible, like lightsaber impossible not supersonic flight impossible.
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